Recent U.S. trade agreements are doing little to revive the struggling ocean container shipping sector, according to new analysis from Xeneta. Despite tariff compromises with major trading partners, freight rates continue to fall sharply across key trade lanes.
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Xeneta data shows spot rates from China to the U.S. West Coast have dropped 59% since June 1, landing at $2,268 per FEU. Rates to the U.S. East Coast have fallen 43% over the same period, now at $3,796 per FEU. Even the relatively stable North Europe–U.S. East Coast route has seen rates slip to $2,000 per FEU—a 5% decline since June and 25% lower than at the start of the year.
“Trade deals aren’t a magic bullet for a weak shipping market,” said Emily Stausbøll, Senior Shipping Analyst at Xeneta. While the recently agreed 15% tariff on EU imports is better than higher rates initially threatened, she noted, “It’s not good news for shippers—just less bad than it could have been.”
Talks with China this week in Stockholm are also unlikely to restore import costs to pre-April levels, when the Trump administration’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs took effect.
The current downturn follows a short-lived surge in April and May, when importers frontloaded shipments during a temporary tariff reduction period. “That cargo rush is over, and freight rates are now falling fast, particularly on fronthaul trades from the Far East,” Stausbøll said.
Carriers are attempting to control the slide by cutting capacity on U.S. routes, but global overcapacity remains a major challenge. Drewry’s World Container Index fell for the sixth consecutive week last week, down 3.3%. The firm projects a weaker supply-demand balance through the second half of 2025, likely pushing spot rates lower.
Future market direction will depend heavily on U.S. tariff decisions and the potential October implementation of penalties on Chinese-operated ships. While some carriers have announced General Rate Increases for transpacific trades, industry observers doubt these will stick given the sluggish demand.
