Retailers in the United States are gearing up for a significant increase in import cargo at U.S. ports this summer, following a temporary 90-day break in the ongoing tariff battle between China and the U.S. The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker provides insights into how these trade policies are shaping the flow of goods into the country. As the back-to-school and fall-winter holiday seasons approach, retailers are taking advantage of the reduced tariffs, which have dropped from a staggering 145% to 30%, leading to a resumption of imports.
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According to data from the IndexBox platform, U.S. ports processed 2.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in April, reflecting a 2.9% increase from the previous month and a 9.6% rise compared to the same period last year. However, projections for May indicated a significant decline, with expected volumes of 1.91 million TEUs, marking a 13.4% decrease from April and an 8.1% year-over-year drop. This downturn represents the first such contraction since September 2023 and the lowest volume since December 2023.
The forecast suggests a potential rebound starting in June as importers move swiftly to capitalize on the tariff break. Despite this, overall numbers remain lower than those of 2024. June’s figures are expected to be around 2.01 million TEUs, a 6.2% decrease from the previous year. Similar trends are anticipated for July and August, with projected volumes of 2.13 million TEUs and 1.98 million TEUs, respectively, reflecting year-over-year decreases of 8.1% and 14.7%. This unusual overlap of back-to-school and winter holiday peak seasons underscores the complexities within the current trade environment, as highlighted by the NRF.
Looking ahead, unless further tariff reductions are implemented, import volumes are likely to diminish for the remainder of 2025. Forecasts for September and October predict even sharper declines, with September expected to handle 1.78 million TEUs, down 21.8% year-over-year, and October at 1.8 million TEUs, a 19.8% drop. These estimates account for previous surges in late 2024 due to concerns over East Coast and Gulf Coast port labor strikes, which had temporarily boosted volumes.
Overall, the first half of 2025 is projected to reach 12.54 million TEUs, representing a 3.7% year-over-year increase. This figure has been revised upward due to the tariff pause but remains below the more optimistic scenarios envisioned before the tariff intensifications in April.
