U.S. container imports are falling sharply, signaling that rising tariffs may be starting to drag on economic momentum. According to the latest Container Volume Observer report from shipping analyst John McCown, inbound volumes at the ten largest U.S. ports fell 7.9% year-over-year in June—the second straight monthly decline following a 6.6% drop in May.
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The downturn follows a strong April, which saw a 9.6% increase, but Q2 2025 ended with a 1.8% overall decline in inbound containers—down sharply from the 9.6% growth seen in Q1. Outbound volumes also dropped 5% in June.
McCown’s data paints a stark contrast to 2024, when inbound container volumes surged 15.2% annually. “It is now most likely that there will be a decline in overall annual inbound volume in 2025,” he writes, calling the reversal one of the most significant year-over-year changes in the 60-year history of U.S. container shipping.
Historically, inbound volumes have outpaced U.S. GDP growth—often by a wide margin—making this contraction especially noteworthy. McCown notes that annual declines in U.S. container imports have occurred only twice before: during the global financial crisis and the pandemic. Both episodes were short-lived, and 2024 volumes even surpassed those seen during the pandemic peak in 2022.
While June’s inbound volume ticked up 1.8% from May to 1.88 million TEUs, it remained 4.7% below the 59-month average, suggesting a sustained downtrend. McCown attributes the shift primarily to tariffs, warning that the current downturn “does not look short-lived,” and that significant trade barriers are likely to persist through the remainder of the current administration.
Looking ahead, McCown highlights the USTR’s planned October ship fee, targeting Chinese-built or Chinese-operated vessels, as another pressure point. He characterizes it as “yet another form of tariff” that will reduce available capacity and drive up freight rates into and out of the U.S.
He also warns of increasing supply chain instability, with some importers abandoning cargo entirely when tariffs exceed the value of their goods. This has created irregular shipping patterns that could cause bottlenecks reminiscent of the pandemic-era congestion.
The report ends with a stark trade-off: “The more inbound container volume to the U.S. declines, the more commerce and growth will be impacted—but the less inflation we will get. The less inbound container volume to the U.S. declines, the more inflation we will get—but the less commerce and growth will be impacted. There is simply no good place to be on that spectrum.”
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