U.S. container imports experienced an 11% increase year over year in March, marking a continuation of the year’s significant monthly gains. However, President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs have cast a shadow over the future outlook, according to trade executives. In March, U.S. seaport imports reached 2,380,674 20-foot-equivalent units (TEUs), as reported by supply chain technology provider Descartes, making it the third-highest level recorded for the month.
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China, which accounted for nearly one-third of the overall import volume, saw its import volume rise by 9.4% year-on-year. This increase was driven by importers seeking to avoid tariffs, contributing to the near-record monthly import gains observed this year. Despite this, trade with China, the United States’ top maritime trading partner, is showing signs of slowing down. The volume of imports from China fell by 12.6% from February to March following the imposition of additional tariffs by the Trump administration.
Jackson Wood, Descartes’ director of industry strategy, noted that global supply chains are grappling with significant challenges, particularly due to the volatility stemming from expanding U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from key trading partners. Recently, President Trump increased duties on Chinese goods to 125% from 104% and placed a 90-day hold on ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on other countries above a blanket rate of 10%.
Forecasts from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates suggest that containerized import cargo volume could drop by at least 20% year-over-year in the second half of 2025. Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, indicated that while there has been a surge in cargo volume as importers attempt to get ahead of tariffs, there could be a decline of 10% or more in the second half of this year compared to 2024. Major U.S. companies, including Walmart and Ford, which rely heavily on imports from China and other nations, could face disruptions. Analysts view imports as a critical indicator of U.S. economic health, and some banks have warned that the ongoing trade war increases the risk of a U.S. recession due to potential inflationary pressures affecting consumer and corporate spending. Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, emphasized that a prolonged trade war could have far-reaching impacts on the global economy.
