The global economy is undergoing a fundamental shift, as the rules-based market order that dominated for eight decades gives way to a world where trade is increasingly weaponized for geopolitical ends, according to a Fortune commentary. Data from IndexBox reveals China now controls over 75% of global lithium-ion battery production and nearly all gallium supplies, highlighting its strategic dominance in critical sectors.
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IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warns of a fragmented world splitting into competing blocs. The post-Cold War illusion of self-regulating markets has crumbled, replaced by a war economy mindset where security trumps efficiency. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and China’s economic rise have accelerated this shift, with Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and Chinese green tech exposing vulnerabilities.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan now advocates for strategic capitalism, as nations prioritize control over cost. The EU’s recent acceptance of 15% tariffs in a trade deal with the US underscores this new reality. Europe is scrambling to diversify supply chains, with Germany rethinking its “Wandel durch Handel” approach and screening Chinese investments.
The article calls for creating a “NATO for trade” – new institutions to protect economic sovereignty through aligned trade rules, shared investments, and collective supply chain security. As market liberalism dies, the West must rebuild global trade on strategic terms to preserve prosperity in this new geopolitical era.
