For the first time in 2025, it’s now more expensive to ship a 40ft container from Asia to North Europe than to the U.S. West Coast — marking a notable shift in global shipping trends. After weeks of diverging movements in spot freight rates on the world’s two largest east-west trade routes, Asia-Europe has pulled ahead, driven by tighter capacity and successful rate increases.
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Container spot rate indices recorded a third consecutive week of sharp declines on Asia-U.S. trades. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) shows the Shanghai-Los Angeles route dropped 15% week-on-week, settling at $3,180 per 40ft container. Other indices painted a similarly grim picture: Xeneta’s XSI reported a 16% drop to $2,677, while the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) plummeted 39% to $3,388. The steepest decline came from the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), which recorded a 19% fall, landing at $2,089.
Transatlantic routes also saw declines. On the Shanghai–New York corridor, WCI rates slid 11% to $5,070, with FBX and SCFI showing steeper declines of 15% ($6,116) and 13% ($4,124), respectively.
In stark contrast, rates on the Asia–North Europe route surged. WCI recorded an 8% increase to $3,468 per 40ft — the first time since December 5, 2024, that this route has outpriced Shanghai-Los Angeles. Xeneta’s XSI backed this with a 17% gain to $3,354, marking the fourth week of rising rates on the lane.
Industry analysts attribute the Asia-Europe resilience to strategic capacity management. Jérôme de Ricqlès, a shipping expert with Upply, explained during a freight webinar that blank sailings and redeployment of vessels to transpacific lanes had constrained supply on the Asia-Europe route. This imbalance created a favorable demand-to-capacity ratio for carriers, helping sustain recent Freight All Kinds (FAK) rate increases to $3,900–$4,100 per 40ft that took effect on July 1.
“We’re not seeing explosive growth — it’s more about stability,” said de Ricqlès. “But Asia-Europe is holding its ground, unlike the transpacific market where rates are falling fast, and carriers overestimated front-loading volumes.”
However, warning signs may be emerging. On the Asia–Mediterranean route, a similar July 1 rate hike attempt fell flat. WCI’s Shanghai-Genoa leg dipped 9% to $3,751, while FBX declined 5% to $4,223. The FBX also reported a 4% drop on its China-North Europe route, to $2,969, suggesting the momentum in Northern Europe may not last.
Elsewhere, the previously stagnant transatlantic trade showed some life. WCI reported a 7% rise on the Rotterdam–New York route, now at $2,119 per 40ft. In a related move, CMA CGM implemented an $800 peak season surcharge per 40ft reefer container on July 1 for westbound shipments from Northern Europe to U.S. East and Gulf coasts, and to Mexico.
As we enter the second half of the year, carriers will need to navigate volatile demand, shifting capacity, and inconsistent success in rate hikes. But for now, the Asia-Europe trade is riding a rare high — and leading the pack.
