Spot ocean freight rates from China to the Arabian Gulf are spiking amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, with carriers bracing for potential disruptions to regional trade routes.
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According to Xeneta, average spot rates from Shanghai to Jebel Ali—the Gulf’s busiest port—have jumped 55% month over month, reaching $2,761 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). The increase began before the latest escalation between Israel and Iran, but industry analysts warn the conflict is now driving additional volatility.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, noted that rising geopolitical risks are pushing up operational costs for carriers moving through the region. These include increased spending on onboard security, higher bunker fuel prices, and elevated fuel consumption as vessels accelerate through high-risk areas to minimize exposure.
Adding to the uncertainty, Maersk announced on Friday it is temporarily suspending port calls to Haifa, Israel’s largest container terminal. While the Adani Group-operated port has not sustained physical damage, it was targeted by Iranian missile attacks. Maersk’s decision follows online disinformation claiming the port was ablaze—an allegation the port’s CFO publicly refuted.
Sand warned that while carriers have yet to implement sweeping service changes across the Arabian Gulf, the potential for broader disruption remains high. “There is clearly a serious risk of further escalation in this conflict and the potential for disruption to supply chains and a spike in freight rates,” he said.
