The U.S. truckload market is experiencing a challenging phase as carrier net revocations remain unseasonably elevated throughout the first half of the year. According to a report, the current pace of exits is 16% higher than during the same period in 2024. Although there has been an increase in new authority issuances this year, recent weeks have seen a stumble due to new enforcement behaviors and processes that may be creating additional barriers to entry.
Read also: Truckload Shipment Trends: Southeast vs. West Coast
IndexBox data highlights that the U.S. truckload market continues to face significant hurdles with demand still too low to support stable business operations. Despite marginal improvements over the past several years, rates have not risen sufficiently to sustain the current level of capacity. Tender rejection rates, which measure how often carriers decline shipper requests for capacity, have been steadily increasing since May 2023, indicating a decline in carrier availability.
Spot rates have also followed an upward trajectory, though they remain flat year-over-year due to rising operating costs, making profitability more elusive. Diesel prices have declined, offering rare relief in a market where fuel costs are a significant factor. Furthermore, tender volumes are down approximately 10-15% compared to the previous year, with much of this decline attributed to mode shifts, particularly in long-haul freight moving to intermodal.
The trucking industry faces growing systemic risk as capacity continues to exit the market. Historically, major market flips have been preceded by recession-like conditions within the freight space. The market’s current downturn is one of the longest and most severe on record, and while market inflections are difficult to predict, the sustained pace of carrier revocations suggests that supply is rapidly converging with demand.
