For decades, concerns of a Canadian “brain drain” have echoed across economic and policy circles — the idea that highly educated, skilled professionals leave Canada, most often for the United States, in pursuit of better pay, more opportunity, or deeper innovation ecosystems. A new report by Statistics Canada, released July 23, 2025, reveals fresh insights into that long-standing narrative — and shows how the dynamics are shifting.
The report, authored by Feng Hou of Statistics Canada along with sociologists Milly Yang and Yao Lu, maps recent trends in permanent and temporary migration flows between Canada and the U.S. It finds that while the U.S. remains a magnet for Canadian talent, the scale of this migration is gradually decreasing.
Permanent migration slows, but skilled workers still move south
In the late 2000s, an average of 15,600 Canadian-born individuals were granted permanent residency in the U.S. annually. By the late 2010s, that number had dropped by 30 per cent to about 10,900. This decline continued through the pandemic and into 2023, signaling that fewer Canadians are making the move to settle in the U.S. long term.
Still, not all the movement is accounted for by native-born Canadians. The study reveals that nearly 30 per cent of Canadian permanent residents moving to the U.S. in recent years were not born in Canada — they were foreign-born immigrants who first settled in Canada and then relocated to the U.S., a phenomenon known as “second-step migration.”
In fact, based on 2016 census data, foreign-born Canadians were nearly twice as likely as Canadian-born individuals to make the move — at a rate of 8.2 per 10,000 compared to 4.8 per 10,000.
U.S.-to-Canada migration narrows the gap
While Canada experienced a net loss of permanent residents to the U.S. from the 1990s to mid-2010s, that flow has levelled off in recent years. Since 2018, migration between the two countries has become relatively balanced, with even a few years where more U.S. residents moved north than vice versa.
Part of that change may be due to American citizens who initially arrived in Canada as temporary residents — such as students or workers — and later transitioned to permanent residency.
The pull of U.S. tech and engineering roles
Although permanent migration is down, Canadian professionals continue to pursue long-term U.S. employment through temporary work visas that often lead to Green Cards. Using data from the U.S. Department of Labor’s labour certification program, the report shows a nuanced picture.
From 2015 to 2024, the number of Canadian citizens applying for employer-sponsored U.S. residency fell by 26 per cent. But the majority of applicants — 60 per cent by 2024 — were foreign-born Canadian citizens, indicating that skilled immigrants to Canada remain highly mobile.
The bulk of these applicants work in computer science, engineering, and technical occupations, with median wage offers exceeding $135,000 USD — underscoring their value in the U.S. labour market. Notably, however, the proportion of applicants with master’s or doctoral degrees has declined over the decade, raising questions about the evolving skills profile of cross-border talent.
What this means for Canada
For Canadian policymakers and industry leaders, these findings highlight a dual challenge: retaining skilled immigrants who come to Canada and curbing the outflow of homegrown talent. While the rate of emigration has slowed, the persistent lure of the U.S. economy — particularly for those in high-tech and engineering — is undeniable.
The report suggests that Canada must double down on both talent retention and innovation incentives to ensure that skilled professionals, whether Canadian- or foreign-born, can build lasting careers within its borders.
As the global race for talent intensifies, the mobility of Canadian workers remains a story to watch — not just as a measure of individual ambition, but as a barometer of Canada’s own ability to compete on the world stage.
