The recent surge in Asia–North Europe container freight rates appears to have plateaued—at least for now—as spot rates show signs of softening across key indices.
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Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) reported a 2% week-on-week decline on the Shanghai–Rotterdam route, bringing rates down to $3,384 per 40ft container and ending a six-week streak of increases. Other indices painted a more mixed picture: the SCFI held steady at $3,996 per 40ft, as did Xeneta’s XSI at $3,393. Freightos’ FBX, however, stood out with a 14% increase, bringing its Asia–North Europe rate to $3,522.
One forwarder described market pricing as mostly flat, noting that some high-end carriers lowered rates slightly to stay competitive. “Space is relatively easy to get—even in the run-up to peak season,” he added. “Aside from Xiamen, where space is tighter, most shipments are moving without major issues.”
But the market may not stay calm for long. Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand warned that spot rates could rise again soon due to worsening congestion at North European ports. “This disruption is expected to persist throughout the rest of 2025,” he said. Carriers are already rerouting services and skipping port calls to manage delays—moves that could increase complexity and cost for shippers.
While rates on the Asia–North Europe route have temporarily leveled out, prices on the Asia–Mediterranean trade have dropped sharply. Drewry’s WCI shows a 7% weekly decline on the Shanghai–Genoa leg, down to $3,491 per 40ft. Some forwarders report that Mediterranean rates have now dipped below North Europe levels for the first time in years.
Meanwhile, rates for Asia–North America trades continued their downward trend, though declines were less severe than in recent weeks. The WCI shows the Shanghai–Los Angeles route down 8% to $2,931 per 40ft, while Shanghai–New York fell 5% to $4,839.
Sand noted that tariff uncertainty is skewing market behavior, particularly on transpacific routes. “Geopolitical shifts have scrambled the usual freight rate patterns,” he said. Spot rates into the U.S. West Coast have dropped 51% in just over a month. With a pullback in front-loading and new tariffs looming, Sand predicts U.S. East Coast rates will soon fall faster than West Coast rates, possibly narrowing the price gap to within $1,000 by the end of July.
Lastly, the transatlantic market gave up its recent gains. Spot rates on the Rotterdam–New York route dropped 6% to $1,990 per 40ft, returning to levels seen two weeks ago.
The current outlook reflects a container market in flux, where congestion, shifting capacity, and geopolitical pressures continue to challenge predictability across global shipping lanes.
