Transpacific container freight rates continued to edge upward this week, though the increase was far more restrained than last week’s general rate increase (GRI)-driven surge. The more modest growth comes as ocean carriers rush to restore capacity in anticipation of a temporary spike in US-bound demand, sparked by a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China.
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While exact figures are unclear, the backlog of cargo awaiting shipment from China is believed to be significant. Sea-Intelligence estimates the queue at anywhere between 180,000 and 540,000 TEU. Supporting this outlook, Jim Boone, chief commercial officer at intermodal provider CSX, told a Wolfe Research event this week that “700,000 to 800,000 loaded containers” may be waiting to move.
Carriers have responded with remarkable speed. According to consultancy Linerlytica, all Far East–US West Coast transpacific services that had been suspended earlier this year are now being reinstated. Drewry added that vessel upgrades and redeployments are underway to meet the resurgent demand, though port congestion in China continues to constrain near-term capacity.
Despite the shift in sentiment, the spot rate response has been moderate. The World Container Index (WCI) reported a 2% week-on-week gain on the Shanghai–Los Angeles route, reaching $3,197 per 40ft container. Shanghai–New York rates rose 4% to $4,257. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) showed 5% increases on both routes, pushing rates to $3,275 and $4,284 respectively.
Industry observers now turn their focus to the upcoming GRIs of $1,000–$3,000 per 40ft, scheduled for 1 and 15 June. The market’s ability to absorb these hikes will likely determine the tone for the remainder of the tariff reprieve, which ends on 9 July.
Still, uncertainty lingers. A recent Freightos survey of over 100 small-to-mid-sized US importers found that anxiety remains high despite the tariff delay. Many businesses are shifting shipment schedules, exploring domestic production, or even considering closing operations. Gaps caused by earlier delays are proving hard to fill.
Meanwhile, spot rates on Asia–Europe routes remained stable. The Shanghai–Rotterdam rate held steady at $2,030 per 40ft, while Shanghai–Genoa rose 4% to $2,841. With a round of new FAK rate hikes set for 1 June — potentially raising prices by 50% — the coming weeks will test whether peak season demand can keep up with expanding capacity and rising congestion across European ports.
Ripple effects from transpacific service adjustments are also being felt on secondary routes. The Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) reported surging rates to the west coast of South America — up 71.7% week-on-week — as capacity was redirected toward the North American trade. Similarly, SCFI’s Shanghai–Manzanillo route jumped 50%, closing the week at $2,387 per 40ft.
