Following a trade summit held in Switzerland from May 9-12, China and the United States have agreed to lift many recent bilateral tariffs for 90 days. The United States will lower its 145% tariffs related to fentanyl and reciprocal trade to 30%, while China will lower its retaliatory 125% tariffs to 10%.
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The United States further cut tariffs on ‘de minimis’ packages valued under $800 (€675) from China and Hong Kong from 120% to 54%. Additionally, China will rescind some of its non-tariff barriers enacted since April 2, including its ban on deliveries of Boeing aircraft.
However, the Chinese government has yet to remove export controls on the rare earth minerals samarium, terbium, gadolinium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium.
U.S.-China trade to partially resume during 90-day negotiation period
The remaining U.S.-China tariffs still represent a significant increase from tariffs prior to January 2025 and could cut U.S. imports from China by as much as 70% in the medium-term.
During the 90-day reduction period, increased U.S.-China shipments are expected as companies rapidly import goods before tariffs are added or resumed. Increased port congestion is likely, especially at ports that handle high volumes of U.S.-China trade, including the Ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach and Boston.
Shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has already reported a jump in container bookings of 50% and has announced plans to increase vessel sizes at its U.S. ports of call.
Current tariff threats have already had tangible impacts on U.S.-China trade, with exports of Chinese-made smartphones falling to their lowest volume since 2011 in April 2025.
| Date | Measure |
| May | Pharmaceutical tariffs expected imminently; public hearings anticipated for potential U.S. tariffs on medium and heavy-duty trucks |
| May 30 | Public comment period for potential U.S. tariffs on imports of civil aircraft and components ends |
| June 8 | Indian tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum could take effect |
| July 8 | Deadline for all countries for negotiations with U.S. on reciprocal tariffs |
| Mid-July | E.U. retaliatory tariffs could take effect |
| Summer 2025 | U.S. semiconductor tariffs expected within next 1-2 months |
| October 8 | New U.S. fees on Chinese-operated and manufactured vessels come into effect |
| Date to be determined | Potential U.S. tariffs on copper goods and critical minerals |
Table 1: Key dates for upcoming trade restrictions (source: Everstream Analytics).
United States and trade partners continue negotiating reductions in reciprocal tariffs
Amid the recent improvements in U.S.-China tariffs, the U.S. is moving forward with negotiations on threatened reciprocal tariffs affecting other countries. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that the U.S. will not be able to reach a deal with all trade partners within the 90-day exemption period, and will notify affected trade partners of their final tariff rate within 2-3 weeks.
Despite the 90-day pause, threatened reciprocal tariffs have already begun to affect the economies of targeted countries. Japan’s exports to the U.S. fell by 1.8% in April 2025 compared to a year earlier, while the European Commission lowered its estimate for export growth in 2025 from 2.2% to 0.7%. Additionally, export growth in South Korea is now estimated at 0.3% in 2025, down significantly from the 7.0% export growth recorded in 2024.
United States threatens additional sectoral tariffs and sanctions on Russia
The U.S. Department of Commerce recently announced a new national security investigation into the import of commercial aircraft, jet engines, and parts. The investigation began on May 1 and will accept public comments through May 30.
Republican Senator Lindsay Graham has proposed a bill in the Senate that would impose additional sanctions on Russia and high tariffs on countries that purchase Russian energy products.The most affected Russian trade partners would likely include China, India, and Iran. E.U. policymakers have also made progress on a new sanctions package that would target Russian energy products, with affected areas including the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, vessels of the Russian shadow fleet, and companies in the financial sector.
